Monday, November 14, 2005

Quicken Premier

One of my side goals for 2005 was to get myself a little more organized. I don't have a file system set up and my desktop is cluttered with icons. Normally when I start something I might try a few different ways before ending up with something I like. For instance, when I started calculating my net worth I made up three different spreadsheets: one was basic, the other two were more detailed. I ended up keeping all three, but I only update one monthly.
My brokerage statements? I used to download and save them, but I stopped doing that awhile back. So now I have various months on my laptop and everything else is online.

Well hopefully I'm taking a step in the right direction by my purchase of Quicken Premier. I chose premier over deluxe because this one has more investment features. I bought the software off eBay for around $25. I thought this was a great deal considering I saw it online for $40+
I figured that by actually spending a little money it will force me to actually use the program.
Once I get it and learn how to use it, I'll try to post a review.

TCHC is up about 10% for me and they came out with a pretty good report. They guided EPS of $4/share next year. That doesn't sound incredibly special until you notice that the stock price is $12. This basically translates into a forward p/e of 3 with a 2.6% dividend yield.
The catch? They based the $4 EPS on *zero* hurricanes next year (they are based in Florida).
They did note that for every hurricane EPS will drop by 36 cents or so. Some of the analysts seemed bullish and it seems people think this is a $20 stock. It is insurance, which I don't know too much about, so I might ask one of the analysts at work for some tips on how to evaluate an insurance company.


NO DooDahs said...

I've got a bud that works for that insurer, but I haven't talked with him about it, or done any analysis on that company. I've been long two insurers, am still long one but closed out the other position for a decent profit (but closed it out too early dang it), and work for an insurer.

Insurers make $$ from underwriting risks (duh) if and only if the combination of expenses, claims, etc. don't exceed premium received. However, the real $$ that most make is from investments. Insurers need surplus in case of catastrophe; when claims are incurred but not yet paid, those reserves are invested. Insurers also buy insurance ("re"insurance) to protect themselves from exposure to single catastrophic events.

The key to investing in insurers is understanding if they are adept enough to squeak out just a tidge more underwriting profit than their competition; to understand and be comfortable with their investment portfolio; and to understand their exposure to single catastrophic events.

wannabe_ceo said...

I got Quicken Premier too a couple months ago. Haven't used it much sicne my computer's been acting up but hopefully by January I'll be sailing.