Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Movin' On Up!

When your largest provider of vendor financing starts pulling back, you have a problem. I think I've said this a few times recently. It was truly inevitable.

While mortgage rates have climbed recently, I think you've only seen the beginning. They have not yet begun to increase!

On another note, it totally makes sense for PIMCO to invest in agencies, no matter how Mish feels about it. PIMCO is in business to make money, for their clients, shareholders (vis-a-vis Allianz), and by extension, themselves. They are in a position to hold the bonds and get made whole (or at least a decent return on invested capital) when the US eventually nationalizes the GSEs. That's their job, right? To make money. I don't see why Bill Gross and PIMCO should be faulted for attempting to follow their mandate. Its a perfectly reasonable position for them given their business.

The part I find most interesting is that if foreign holders of agency debt are unloading, is the US Federal government going to be as interested in taking care of the debtholders, PIMCO among them? Hmmm. It makes me wonder. The Feds have to take care of the people who are holding US government debt of all stripes, even though I think eventually the damn will break and the Treasury rates will soar. For now, the Fed are just trying to maintain as much control as possible. Taking care of China and Japan is in order given the scenario, and anyone (such as PIMCO) can go along for the ride if they choose. I just wonder if Japan has also been selling out of its positions in agencies? In every trade, there's a buyer and seller, but its easier to screw over your populace than a foreign government that facilitates your shell games.

No matter how you slice it, rates are going up. I stand by that assertion.

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