Hmmm. No need to guess what I think.
Anyway, a warm winter drives down heating oil and possibly even natural gas demand. Doesn't that become a segue for a warmer summer, with increased natural gas demand? Of course, the geopolitical risks are everpresent. A weaker US economy (again, no need to guess how I feel about that one) helps power down petroleum pricing too. I can see that.
So the question is - what's missing?
I think we see higher oil prices by year end, but what happens in the middle?
If demand dries up in the US, I expect to see OPEC cut their quotas. We still have yet to see the impact of the 1 February quota cut. Demand doesn't seem to be decreasing anywhere generally, especially not in this country. (Whip out the H2s! Its springtime in January!)
So while the short term trend may be down, clearly the long term is up. Natural gas for May delivery, anyone?