Friday, April 15, 2005

A Tough Day in the Market

Things are just not going too well out there. Some of the bigger news involves Apple and IBM. Apple had good numbers, but people were expecting better guidance I think. They are down another 5.7% in after-hours. IBM missed expectations and this cost them big: they are down just over 5% in after-hours.
The drugs did fairly well and I wish I bought FRX (up 5% in after-hours) and PFE last week. I hesitated and instead went with finance stocks. I still might sell a few things and buy some PFE and FRX, hopefully if they drop tomorrow- but this seems unlikely.
It's in markets like these where you need to keep your emotions in check. The thing to remember is, something from one of my favorite books (The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy): Don't Panic

The S&P 500, for the year, is down about 4.11%. My portfolio is up 3.94%, but if you add in my most recent purchases (they will bring the overall performance down since they were just added), then the portfolio is up around 1%.
The numbers aren't very pretty, but my main goal is to beat the S&P. My second goal is to end the year with positive returns. So far, things are on track.
This is the time when I will try to do certain strategies, such as covered calls, to add to my returns.

Here's one type of strategy I'm looking into:
The prices used were from a few days ago.
If you find any mistakes in my methodology or calculations, please let me know.
SFL: $20.07
Nov 20s Call $1.85; Nov 17.5 Put $1.35
Yearly dividend $1.80, expected dividends from now till Nov $0.90
Option net: write the call - buy the put = $0.50
Cost reduction in price = price paid for stock - option net - dividends
= 20.07 - 0.50 - 0.90 = $18.67
(Note: I didn't add this into these calculations, but theoretically the dividends and option net received would be gaining interest from now till November, in this case it would add almost $3)
The strategy: write the call, and buy the put.
Max loss: this would be if the price ends in Nov at $17.51 because the Put would be useless.
The loss will be around 6.21%
Max profit: if the price ends at $19.99 so the call will not be exercised, this will amount to around 7.07%
Annualized = 1.0707^(12/7) - 1 = 12.42%
Note: this does not take into account commissions, which would reduce the annualized gains (assuming one contract) to around 10.11%
If the price ends above $20, there will be some profit since the overall cost basis on the shares purchased is around $18.67
If the price ends below 17.50, I can exercise the put (or sell the put to close the position). If I sell the put I will gain some on this part.
If the price ends in the middle with the max loss of 6.21%, I can still do one thing: I can try the strategy all over again since I will still have the shares.
I think I covered everything, but I'm still looking into this strategy. I will also try to find a better stock to use. Something that is not too volatile, has a nice dividend, options, and good option premiums.

2 comments:

wannabe_ceo said...

I heard from all the "experts" the market would be slow but not THIS slow. Bring back the go-go 90's.

Alpha said...

Today was not any better, it was noted that it was the worst day in the past two years...