And just when I was about to try, the always acerbic (in a good way) Equity Private reads my mind.
We're glad to see you back in action, EP! We missed ya!
K
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
PE Churn
I thought of subtitling this post "distressed was ALWAYS the place to be". I'm not sure what to make of this one, but that won't stop me from trying something.
You know, fundamentally, I like the private equity business model. (Maybe I should prepare a CV and apply for that PE job that keeps calling me.) However, if anything, I see more long range opportunity for the distressed guys, especially the hedge funds, in the aftermath of all of the credit expansion that has enabled this tear in the private equity business.
Starting with the absurdity of the "new" private equity model which seems to have little to do with restructuring, it occurs to me that the end game for many of these newly re-IPOed (LIPOed, in the parlance of Equity Private) firms will be a credit crunch, followed by a liquidity crisis and eventually bankruptcy and asset sales. Overexpansion always yields collapse, it seems. (Or so history appears to say.)
Maybe I have my order wrong. I'm no financial historian. But just as the housing market in the US made no sense, neither does the belief that these companies will magically work once they are again public. I mean, the didn't work before, and it appears that far too little changes inside many of these firms by the time they go public again. Its almost equivalent to broker account churning, right? Buy and sell the same battered assets over and over, never adding any real value. Hell, Blackstone has sold off a significant number of the EOP properties, and the deal only closed on the 9th of February. What's the point of doing the deal if you can't put something significant into the firm that wasn't there prior?
While on the face of things, it resembles the corporate raider mentality, it would be nice if these PE guys would at least admit that's the plan. Plunder and pillage, 21st century style.
This whole issue sounds very familiar to me, now that I think about it.
I don't know if this argument makes sense to anyone besides myself. I have been a bit sleep deprived recently. But watching all these deals close, while obvious benefiting the current shareholders, you just can see the ugly future approaching. Might as well be positioned to pick up the pieces, I figure. But that doesn't make it any less of a tragedy, or even simply a waste of investor capital. (Not that the investors mind, I'm sure, as long as they make their numbers. I'm looking at things from a big picture, compassionate capitalism kind of view. I think I'm the only person I know who embraces such a view.)
Can private equity (or capitalism for that matter) really be compassionate? Can it serve the interest of investors, of markets, of customers, and all the other stakeholders, and the Universe itself, while still being efficient, even ruthless when warranted? Or is it some fantasy I'm living in? I guess that's a discussion for another post.
You know, fundamentally, I like the private equity business model. (Maybe I should prepare a CV and apply for that PE job that keeps calling me.) However, if anything, I see more long range opportunity for the distressed guys, especially the hedge funds, in the aftermath of all of the credit expansion that has enabled this tear in the private equity business.
Starting with the absurdity of the "new" private equity model which seems to have little to do with restructuring, it occurs to me that the end game for many of these newly re-IPOed (LIPOed, in the parlance of Equity Private) firms will be a credit crunch, followed by a liquidity crisis and eventually bankruptcy and asset sales. Overexpansion always yields collapse, it seems. (Or so history appears to say.)
Maybe I have my order wrong. I'm no financial historian. But just as the housing market in the US made no sense, neither does the belief that these companies will magically work once they are again public. I mean, the didn't work before, and it appears that far too little changes inside many of these firms by the time they go public again. Its almost equivalent to broker account churning, right? Buy and sell the same battered assets over and over, never adding any real value. Hell, Blackstone has sold off a significant number of the EOP properties, and the deal only closed on the 9th of February. What's the point of doing the deal if you can't put something significant into the firm that wasn't there prior?
While on the face of things, it resembles the corporate raider mentality, it would be nice if these PE guys would at least admit that's the plan. Plunder and pillage, 21st century style.
This whole issue sounds very familiar to me, now that I think about it.
I don't know if this argument makes sense to anyone besides myself. I have been a bit sleep deprived recently. But watching all these deals close, while obvious benefiting the current shareholders, you just can see the ugly future approaching. Might as well be positioned to pick up the pieces, I figure. But that doesn't make it any less of a tragedy, or even simply a waste of investor capital. (Not that the investors mind, I'm sure, as long as they make their numbers. I'm looking at things from a big picture, compassionate capitalism kind of view. I think I'm the only person I know who embraces such a view.)
Can private equity (or capitalism for that matter) really be compassionate? Can it serve the interest of investors, of markets, of customers, and all the other stakeholders, and the Universe itself, while still being efficient, even ruthless when warranted? Or is it some fantasy I'm living in? I guess that's a discussion for another post.
Bad Timing
As Robin Harris used to say "ain't THAT a bitch!" On Monday, a long/short fund announced their closing and then we get yesterday. I wonder how that feels. Tood bad they couldn't hold our for just a few hours longer; the "disruptive change" they sought finally came.
Maybe I should add a comedy tag, because that's hilarious!
Maybe I should add a comedy tag, because that's hilarious!
Blog Recommendation - FiNTAG
I don't know how I originally stumbled upon FiNTAG but you have to love it. Great commentary on the day's hedge fund news from the princial commentator named - of course - Fintag. I'll be keeping an eye on some of the other business endeavors taken with this site as well, when I have a bit more time. However, the remarks alone are worth the visit.
Anyway, time for me to get caught up on my reading, starting here. The last few days have been draining.
Until next time...
Anyway, time for me to get caught up on my reading, starting here. The last few days have been draining.
Until next time...
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Net Worth Update
It has been a while since I've done one of these, so its time to get caught up.
Good news abounds for this net worth update. We'll start with the bonus from my J.O.B. that I was completely not expecting. I won't rehash the details of my failed consulting gig, but after returning to my current company, I figured I had no hope of getting the bonus that was promised to employees who stayed with the company. (It was an acquisition of my old company by the new company.) I left shortly after the acquisition closed only to return a few weeks later and found that most traces of my existence had been obliterated. So naturally I thought I'd end up being the red headed stepchild of the bonus pool. Not so. I guess my performance finally got noticed. (It only took 3.5 years and a resignation.) That was very beneficial to the bottom line.
Also helpful was the slight (and I do mean slight) "merit" (ha!) increase I received. Not enough to bother calculating really; I think it means an extra $100 per month take home, if I'm lucky. Most of that will get funneled to emergency savings. However, I won't argue with money. Nope, not me. I think there is a enough flexibility to max out my 401(k) contributions now too. (I had been at 14% and now the limit is 15% - woo hoo!)
I have (unfortunately?) done some consulting work recently which will help bulk up my account balances. Nothing large, as I don't charge most of my clients anywhere near market rates (2 out of 3; the last one does pay market, and on time too!). Every dollar helps though. I'm not complaining.
All told, factoring in the most recent increases in most of my accounts, I have finally surpassed $90,000 in net worth. Actually, the numbers work out to about $95,000. Quite a substantial jump from where I was expecting to land. If things continue like this, I should be at 100K within 2 months. The annual goal is 150K. Very aggressive, but not outside the realm of possibility. I'll keep you posted.
Until next time...
Good news abounds for this net worth update. We'll start with the bonus from my J.O.B. that I was completely not expecting. I won't rehash the details of my failed consulting gig, but after returning to my current company, I figured I had no hope of getting the bonus that was promised to employees who stayed with the company. (It was an acquisition of my old company by the new company.) I left shortly after the acquisition closed only to return a few weeks later and found that most traces of my existence had been obliterated. So naturally I thought I'd end up being the red headed stepchild of the bonus pool. Not so. I guess my performance finally got noticed. (It only took 3.5 years and a resignation.) That was very beneficial to the bottom line.
Also helpful was the slight (and I do mean slight) "merit" (ha!) increase I received. Not enough to bother calculating really; I think it means an extra $100 per month take home, if I'm lucky. Most of that will get funneled to emergency savings. However, I won't argue with money. Nope, not me. I think there is a enough flexibility to max out my 401(k) contributions now too. (I had been at 14% and now the limit is 15% - woo hoo!)
I have (unfortunately?) done some consulting work recently which will help bulk up my account balances. Nothing large, as I don't charge most of my clients anywhere near market rates (2 out of 3; the last one does pay market, and on time too!). Every dollar helps though. I'm not complaining.
All told, factoring in the most recent increases in most of my accounts, I have finally surpassed $90,000 in net worth. Actually, the numbers work out to about $95,000. Quite a substantial jump from where I was expecting to land. If things continue like this, I should be at 100K within 2 months. The annual goal is 150K. Very aggressive, but not outside the realm of possibility. I'll keep you posted.
Until next time...
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Securitizing Insurance
There's an interesting article in today's Wall Street Journal about the growing market for investment products backed by insurance (subscription required). Very interesting. This article is focused on personal insurance as opposed to catastrophe bonds or other products linked to property insurance. Still, it makes for fascinating reading. What will they think to securitize next?
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
A Profile of Yale's Money Man
This is noble! Very cool stuff. A great money manager who hasn't lost touch with his humanity. (And humanity is not a word I use often.) Much respect.
I'd love to think one day that a guy of similar mind to David Swensen could be running the endowment at my alma mater. What a nice thought. Of course, as Paul Vixie once said to me, I'm cautiously pessimistic.
I'd love to think one day that a guy of similar mind to David Swensen could be running the endowment at my alma mater. What a nice thought. Of course, as Paul Vixie once said to me, I'm cautiously pessimistic.
Ups and Downs
What a week!
Being employed sucks. I kinda miss being unemployed last year, even though it was only for 3 weeks. Strangely liberating. Time to get back to that.
Just ran an analysis for a new real estate deal one of my partners ran by me. I need to learn some advanced Excel tricks. That might be the only good reason to get an MBA. My valuation model needs some work. I plan to sit down one day and sketch that out. Now if I can find a nice source of valuation information that has a programmable Web services API! That would be sweet. I think I may have found something similar, but I'll have to look at it a bit more. If you have any good resources for learning how to master the power that is Microsoft Excel, please share! I hate Microsoft, but I LOVE Microsoft Excel!
I like this house though. Its already rented and not far from another one we already own. (Our best deal to date, actually.) The numbers are very reasonable and it should be able to cash flow pretty well. My personal goal is to bring in 5 properties to the group this year. I need to ramp up the prospecting.
*sigh*
I know there are some folks out there who want to know more about "The Business". Well, things are coming together now. I FINALLY managed to get my certificate from VeriSign last Friday, 16 February. A better way to end what was generally a crappy week. Then I tried to install the cert, and everything fell apart. Seems for all the fighting I had done to push the thing through, I managed to generate the wrong kind of data for the wrong kind of cert. VeriSign sells Java code signing certs as well as the ubiquitous SSL web server certs. I had generated data for the latter, when what I needed for the former. Thankfully, after a call to VeriSign yesterday (which was returned within 2 hours although the voicemail message told me to expect 24 hour turnaround), I was able to get the confusion cleared up. I was also informed that I could replace the already-issued certificate with a new one for free, since I was still within 30 days of issuance.
Schweet!
So I have a new code signing cert application in and the process is moving, albeit a bit glacial for my tastes. I'll follow up with them after I call my cousin about legal services.
My partner is making GREAT headway it seems. She's too cool, man! Too fuggin' cool.
Anyway, my thoughts are very random and scattered right now. I'm still recovering from Friday night's festivities. As I said, since I couldn't get myself to Trinidad, I brought Trinidad to me (as much as possible). More on that in a later post.
Until next time...
Being employed sucks. I kinda miss being unemployed last year, even though it was only for 3 weeks. Strangely liberating. Time to get back to that.
Just ran an analysis for a new real estate deal one of my partners ran by me. I need to learn some advanced Excel tricks. That might be the only good reason to get an MBA. My valuation model needs some work. I plan to sit down one day and sketch that out. Now if I can find a nice source of valuation information that has a programmable Web services API! That would be sweet. I think I may have found something similar, but I'll have to look at it a bit more. If you have any good resources for learning how to master the power that is Microsoft Excel, please share! I hate Microsoft, but I LOVE Microsoft Excel!
I like this house though. Its already rented and not far from another one we already own. (Our best deal to date, actually.) The numbers are very reasonable and it should be able to cash flow pretty well. My personal goal is to bring in 5 properties to the group this year. I need to ramp up the prospecting.
*sigh*
I know there are some folks out there who want to know more about "The Business". Well, things are coming together now. I FINALLY managed to get my certificate from VeriSign last Friday, 16 February. A better way to end what was generally a crappy week. Then I tried to install the cert, and everything fell apart. Seems for all the fighting I had done to push the thing through, I managed to generate the wrong kind of data for the wrong kind of cert. VeriSign sells Java code signing certs as well as the ubiquitous SSL web server certs. I had generated data for the latter, when what I needed for the former. Thankfully, after a call to VeriSign yesterday (which was returned within 2 hours although the voicemail message told me to expect 24 hour turnaround), I was able to get the confusion cleared up. I was also informed that I could replace the already-issued certificate with a new one for free, since I was still within 30 days of issuance.
Schweet!
So I have a new code signing cert application in and the process is moving, albeit a bit glacial for my tastes. I'll follow up with them after I call my cousin about legal services.
My partner is making GREAT headway it seems. She's too cool, man! Too fuggin' cool.
Anyway, my thoughts are very random and scattered right now. I'm still recovering from Friday night's festivities. As I said, since I couldn't get myself to Trinidad, I brought Trinidad to me (as much as possible). More on that in a later post.
Until next time...
Marketocracy Funds go live
Caught this over at VentureBeat that Marketocracy has finally launched mutual funds based on the picks of its top 4 stock pickers. A nice interview with the top performing guy, Chris Rees, is included with the VentureBeat article. Very cool.
I wonder how much overlap there was/is between his portfolio and the portfolio of Steven A. Cohen. Reportedly, Cohen's returns since 1992 have averaged over 40% annually, although I don't have the exact number handy. It would be cool to compare Rees' portfolio since 1992 with Cohen's. Just an interesting thought exercise.
I have a portfolio over at Marketocracy. I think the last time I looked at it was some time last year. I just don't have the time to focus on stock picking like I would like to (or be able to), especially while trying to hold down a full time job and build a startup, nevermind all the other things I'm doing concurrently.
I wonder how much overlap there was/is between his portfolio and the portfolio of Steven A. Cohen. Reportedly, Cohen's returns since 1992 have averaged over 40% annually, although I don't have the exact number handy. It would be cool to compare Rees' portfolio since 1992 with Cohen's. Just an interesting thought exercise.
I have a portfolio over at Marketocracy. I think the last time I looked at it was some time last year. I just don't have the time to focus on stock picking like I would like to (or be able to), especially while trying to hold down a full time job and build a startup, nevermind all the other things I'm doing concurrently.
Sunday, February 18, 2007
Friday, February 16, 2007
Brilliant!
I'll be following the story of the EOP purchase very carefully. Looking for lots more press on Jon Gray.
However, I may be alone on this one, but it seems stupid to be the business trying to achieve "milestones". I'll take the money, please, thank you. The cap rate is sick, and not in a good way. Definitely sounds like a trophy acquisition for Blackstone. Talk about an area to stay away from - any commercial real estate investment, especially those which trade on markets (REITs). I think time will show that Steve Roth at Vornado made the best decision - whether by choice or circumstance - by withdrawing from the EOP bidding.
Until next time...
However, I may be alone on this one, but it seems stupid to be the business trying to achieve "milestones". I'll take the money, please, thank you. The cap rate is sick, and not in a good way. Definitely sounds like a trophy acquisition for Blackstone. Talk about an area to stay away from - any commercial real estate investment, especially those which trade on markets (REITs). I think time will show that Steve Roth at Vornado made the best decision - whether by choice or circumstance - by withdrawing from the EOP bidding.
Until next time...
Thursday, February 15, 2007
So Sad
NOTE: This post has little to do with money or alpha, so if you have no interest in such topics, change channels now. And...this bitch is long.
So here I am, back in the house my parents have lived in for the last 18 years, in Maryland. I'm not supposed to be here. I'm supposed to be in Trinidad. The story of why I am here as opposed being in San Fernando, Trinidad is a long, winding and disappointing one. Somehow, I get the feeling that God didn't want me to go to Trinidad, and that saddens me. While I'm still evaluating options, to quote my high school friend Damon, "things look bleak for the home team".
I originally made these reservations in early December, and got a reasonably good deal considering how late in the cycle I did all this. (Thanks American Express Platinum Travel! I love you guys.) $638 round trip to Trinidad 1 week before Ash Wednesday and returning the last day of February. So everything was in order and then...
I remembered that my J.O.B. (Just Over Broke, for anyone not familiar with T. Harv Eker's writings, and boy is that accurate) only gives me 2 weeks of vacation. So I'm looking at burning up all of vacation time on 2 weeks in Trinidad. While I love Trinidad, I can't do what I did last year, when I was unemployed during my time in Trinidad. (Which is why the J.O.B. only gives me 2 weeks instead of the 3 I would have if they had re-instated my seniority when I returned from the failed consulting gig with Unisys. But I'm not bitter.)
I've been weighing this for the last few weeks. Do I go and burn up all the time, or do I stay and piecemeal it out over the course of the year? Fugg me! In mid - late January, I decided to cancel. So I e-mailed the friends I would be staying with and let them know. I justified this decision by saying that I should be here to get things in order with the business, continue pushing forward, all that kind of thing. And I do believe that. But I also promised myself to go to Trinidad Carnival every year from now until I die. This commitment weighed on my conscience; to fail at it so soon was unnerving.
In the last week, however, a few things happened which re-kindled both the hope and the possibility of going to Trini. First, I found out that my friends at Basement Knokers weren't going to throw an event this Saturday night Having been adopted by Trini friends that I went to college with, this was nothing short of sacrilege. No Saturday night fete!?!?!? I was livid. Being reduced to partying only on Friday night, even though I had planned to go with friends and bring Trinidad to DC, was still not "right". Then on Monday I text messaged one of my friends, a real Trini soldier, and asked him when he planned to leave. Friday morning was the answer. So we spoke and he cleared up some things for me. Please allow me to diverge, to provide some context.
Last year, I went to Trinidad very stressed. Stressed due to relationship issues. Stressed due to my job loss, which was the first time in my employed life - 9 years - that I was ever let go from a job when I had avoided it for longer than many other people in my line of work and industries. Stressed just because that's the kind of personality I have. I'm high strung. My original plan was to go for 12 days. Now, people who know me know I'm a nice guy. (People who don't know me seem to fear me, but that's a different story.) So, on the Sunday my girlfriend and I were scheduled to leave, I offered to give up our seats to some people who desperately wanted (needed?) to get back to the US. I mean, I was unemployed anyway. Staying in Trinidad wasn't going to hurt my earnings terribly, even though I had begun the process of returning to my old (and now current) J.O.B. So I gave up the seats, on a promise from Continental Airlines that I would be on *the* next flight that day. Well, airline promises aren't worth a damn, so that fell through. Long story short, I ended up buying first class tickets on BWIA back to DC for that Thursday. I have to admit that, after getting over my initial upset and anger, I enjoyed myself greatly for those remaining 4 days. Enough to determine that I needed to stay at least 2 weeks the next time I came down. That is what I planned for back in December 2006.
So, coming back to the present, after my conversation on Monday morning, it occurred to me that I had created this illusion of a "perfect" trip that had to be at least 2 weeks long. It was completely unrealistic under the circumstances, so I decided to quit instead. (As UGK once said - "ain't no need for me to finish if I ain't comin' out first".) However, the experience - of seeing my friends whom I haven't seen since last year, of going to all the fetes I missed last year (the Sunny Side Up Breakfast Fete and Insomnia being the critical ones), and of just getting away from all the bullschitt at my J.O.B. - was worth the trip, even if only for a week.
The linchpin to this story is that although I had already told people I wasn't going to Trinidad, I had not yet cancelled my tickets. Since my departing flight was scheduled for 9:20 AM EST on Wednesday, 14 February, I figured I would hold off until the 13th "just in case". I'm glad I did, because I was able to make an adjustment to the tickets and - voila! - a one week trip instead of two, with the original departure date intact.
Then nature struck.
(Whew! I told you this would be a long bloody post.)
Maybe I'm not supposed to go to Trinidad. I mean, a huge winter storm mucks up the works on the morning I am flying to Trinidad. I get a call at 4:25 AM from my shuttle company telling me that my 4:55 AM shuttle is canceled. (Damn!) So now that I know I'm not making the 9:20 flight, I go online to check the flight status. Canceled. (Brilliant!) Call American and they are able to get me on the 10:45 AM flight. (This could work after all!) I proceed to call the biggest cab company in my area, and they proceed to tell me that they can't get their cars on the road. Its sooo not happening. (Damn!) I have to drive. I wanted to avoid this because I didn't want to pay the exorbitant parking rates that every airport charges, but it appears unavoidable. Call it an expense, and I am happy to pay it after returning from Trinidad. So I get on the road around 8:30 AM, fighting off a Sickle Cell crisis induced by the overexertion of cleaning off the car compounding my chronically sleep deprived state. (Love Demerol! Don't medicate and drive, kids!) Once I reach National Airport (I'll be damned if I call it Reagan National), I find that every flight from every airline going to Miami (my connecting city) is canceled. (Perfect!) Once inside the terminal, I'm frantically trying to find out about getting my bag checked. I use the TSA approved locks, I'm not worried about that. But dammit, WTF don't the kiosks allow international travelers to check in!?!?!? WTF thought this was a good idea???? WTF!?!?!?
(This is why I fly JetBlue to California! I hate the major airlines with a passion. Of course, I didn't sit on the tarmac in NYC for 8 hours either.)
Now I'm waiting in a line that LITERALLY did not move for 45 minutes. I'm standing in the self-service line on the off chance that I can get someone's attention long enough to plead my case to check my bag. I'm doing anything I can think of short of throwing shit. (They still shoot Black people in DC, and enjoy it.) I finally get some modicum of a response from this one agent, obviously overworked and harried, around 10:15 AM. (Reminder the flight time. Scroll back if you need a refresher.) After about 10 - 15 minutes of silence, she says she's going on her break. HELLO? WTF about me? You did say you would see what you could do to help me? How does taking a break help me? Can you at least hand me off to someone else? Fugg me! Another agent, this time a guy, starts working with me but when the exercise ends in defeat, he gives me the obligatory phone number to call to make the impossible changes to my itinerary.
At this point, the memories kind of fade into a blur. I'm sure you're all happy, because this is a long ass post and I need to wrap it up soon. Hell, I'm getting tired of typing. Once I finally get back into the line, it speeds up, taking only 30+ minutes to an agent instead of 45+. So I start telling my story, keeping in mind that I have listened in on or overheard every DC -> Miami cancellation story American has to offer. (Why the hell did they fly the 10:45 but not the 12:20? Huh?) So I'm asking for a flight - any flight, on any airline - to Miami. Nothing. While standing in line, I call the phone number the previous agent gave me and start trying to find something. No go. I call Platinum Travel and they scrounge something together through the Bahamas leaving at 2 something PM. (Should have written that flight number down, because the Bahamian woman in front of me in line was starting the Milton routine. Boy was she unhappy.) For various reasons, I found none of the options too appealing so I wrote them all off except one, which I put on hold. American gives me a voucher made from the remains of my ticket. (Do NOT loose not a single hair off the heads of all 4 tickets, otherwise the whole deal is null and void. Great! That's the same reason I didn't get through Intro to Programming back in 2005.) The woman behind me, heading to a second honeymoon in the Keys with her husband, starts breaking down - badly. Its just ugly.
After getting out of the line, walking through the terminal, I call Platinum Travel and put on hold a flight through the Bahamas on Thursday. (That would be today for everyone who hasn't kept up). Schweet! Now I just need a co-signer in the form of my partner who is opening his house to me. Call him up, and although he sounds upset about it, he signs on. Nice. Progress is being made. I call Platinum Travel back and confirm. We're on! So I make my way back to my parent's house in PG County, so I can be *that* much closer to the airport. After a nap and more crisis pain, I call AmEx back with the intention of locking in the new itinerary. At this point, the agent reads it back, and its missing a leg. Huh? What happened to my flight to Nassau. Oh, it was canceled. Fugg me! Ok, lets put a new one together. After however long, she comes up with a flight through Nassau on Friday. All the same details as the previous itinerary, except the ONLY seat on the plane is first class. Now, I love first class, so its not like she's got to sell me on that bit. Just get me onto the bloody island and I'm happy. But what's the cost? $2064, including the return flight on Delta which carried over from the failed itinerary.
He're's where the trouble starts. See, I don't mind paying the money. That 2K gets me to Trinidad in time for some nice fetes. I've done it before, I'll do it again. If I have a choice of burning time or money, money will win almost every time. But how much is it really worth? I start calling my partner from Monday back, and once I finally get him on the phone, it gets clearer. The 2K buys me 2 nights of parties, but since I'm not in a band for Monday and Tuesday, I end up being a spectator. Fair enough. There's always Jouvert, right? But if I go with the available flight on Sunday, I miss all the hot parties and only have access to the jump up, which I'm only going to watch anyway. But I save 2K. Hmmm. Ain't this a bitch? After some consultation, and another sad story of a failed connection to Miami by another Trini solider who was unfortunate enough to buy ALL his tickets in advance, I decide against the Friday flight.
So here I am. Its 3:13 AM on Thursday, 15 February. I'm at my parents house in Maryland, not San Fernando. Its cold in this bitch. There's black ice outside. The power went out for an hour earlier. Every so often, you hear the ice-laden branches being whipped up (down) by the winds gusting to 40 miles per hour. I wouldn't have to turn the heat up to 80 degrees F if I were in Trinidad right now.
*sigh*
But on the upside, I received e-mail from one of my favorite bloggers tonight. How cool! Already replied. He asked about "the business". We'll see how things go.
And now I think I'm ready for bed. It's been real.
Until next time...stay warm...think Trinidad..."Jumbie" for Road March!
So here I am, back in the house my parents have lived in for the last 18 years, in Maryland. I'm not supposed to be here. I'm supposed to be in Trinidad. The story of why I am here as opposed being in San Fernando, Trinidad is a long, winding and disappointing one. Somehow, I get the feeling that God didn't want me to go to Trinidad, and that saddens me. While I'm still evaluating options, to quote my high school friend Damon, "things look bleak for the home team".
I originally made these reservations in early December, and got a reasonably good deal considering how late in the cycle I did all this. (Thanks American Express Platinum Travel! I love you guys.) $638 round trip to Trinidad 1 week before Ash Wednesday and returning the last day of February. So everything was in order and then...
I remembered that my J.O.B. (Just Over Broke, for anyone not familiar with T. Harv Eker's writings, and boy is that accurate) only gives me 2 weeks of vacation. So I'm looking at burning up all of vacation time on 2 weeks in Trinidad. While I love Trinidad, I can't do what I did last year, when I was unemployed during my time in Trinidad. (Which is why the J.O.B. only gives me 2 weeks instead of the 3 I would have if they had re-instated my seniority when I returned from the failed consulting gig with Unisys. But I'm not bitter.)
I've been weighing this for the last few weeks. Do I go and burn up all the time, or do I stay and piecemeal it out over the course of the year? Fugg me! In mid - late January, I decided to cancel. So I e-mailed the friends I would be staying with and let them know. I justified this decision by saying that I should be here to get things in order with the business, continue pushing forward, all that kind of thing. And I do believe that. But I also promised myself to go to Trinidad Carnival every year from now until I die. This commitment weighed on my conscience; to fail at it so soon was unnerving.
In the last week, however, a few things happened which re-kindled both the hope and the possibility of going to Trini. First, I found out that my friends at Basement Knokers weren't going to throw an event this Saturday night Having been adopted by Trini friends that I went to college with, this was nothing short of sacrilege. No Saturday night fete!?!?!? I was livid. Being reduced to partying only on Friday night, even though I had planned to go with friends and bring Trinidad to DC, was still not "right". Then on Monday I text messaged one of my friends, a real Trini soldier, and asked him when he planned to leave. Friday morning was the answer. So we spoke and he cleared up some things for me. Please allow me to diverge, to provide some context.
Last year, I went to Trinidad very stressed. Stressed due to relationship issues. Stressed due to my job loss, which was the first time in my employed life - 9 years - that I was ever let go from a job when I had avoided it for longer than many other people in my line of work and industries. Stressed just because that's the kind of personality I have. I'm high strung. My original plan was to go for 12 days. Now, people who know me know I'm a nice guy. (People who don't know me seem to fear me, but that's a different story.) So, on the Sunday my girlfriend and I were scheduled to leave, I offered to give up our seats to some people who desperately wanted (needed?) to get back to the US. I mean, I was unemployed anyway. Staying in Trinidad wasn't going to hurt my earnings terribly, even though I had begun the process of returning to my old (and now current) J.O.B. So I gave up the seats, on a promise from Continental Airlines that I would be on *the* next flight that day. Well, airline promises aren't worth a damn, so that fell through. Long story short, I ended up buying first class tickets on BWIA back to DC for that Thursday. I have to admit that, after getting over my initial upset and anger, I enjoyed myself greatly for those remaining 4 days. Enough to determine that I needed to stay at least 2 weeks the next time I came down. That is what I planned for back in December 2006.
So, coming back to the present, after my conversation on Monday morning, it occurred to me that I had created this illusion of a "perfect" trip that had to be at least 2 weeks long. It was completely unrealistic under the circumstances, so I decided to quit instead. (As UGK once said - "ain't no need for me to finish if I ain't comin' out first".) However, the experience - of seeing my friends whom I haven't seen since last year, of going to all the fetes I missed last year (the Sunny Side Up Breakfast Fete and Insomnia being the critical ones), and of just getting away from all the bullschitt at my J.O.B. - was worth the trip, even if only for a week.
The linchpin to this story is that although I had already told people I wasn't going to Trinidad, I had not yet cancelled my tickets. Since my departing flight was scheduled for 9:20 AM EST on Wednesday, 14 February, I figured I would hold off until the 13th "just in case". I'm glad I did, because I was able to make an adjustment to the tickets and - voila! - a one week trip instead of two, with the original departure date intact.
Then nature struck.
(Whew! I told you this would be a long bloody post.)
Maybe I'm not supposed to go to Trinidad. I mean, a huge winter storm mucks up the works on the morning I am flying to Trinidad. I get a call at 4:25 AM from my shuttle company telling me that my 4:55 AM shuttle is canceled. (Damn!) So now that I know I'm not making the 9:20 flight, I go online to check the flight status. Canceled. (Brilliant!) Call American and they are able to get me on the 10:45 AM flight. (This could work after all!) I proceed to call the biggest cab company in my area, and they proceed to tell me that they can't get their cars on the road. Its sooo not happening. (Damn!) I have to drive. I wanted to avoid this because I didn't want to pay the exorbitant parking rates that every airport charges, but it appears unavoidable. Call it an expense, and I am happy to pay it after returning from Trinidad. So I get on the road around 8:30 AM, fighting off a Sickle Cell crisis induced by the overexertion of cleaning off the car compounding my chronically sleep deprived state. (Love Demerol! Don't medicate and drive, kids!) Once I reach National Airport (I'll be damned if I call it Reagan National), I find that every flight from every airline going to Miami (my connecting city) is canceled. (Perfect!) Once inside the terminal, I'm frantically trying to find out about getting my bag checked. I use the TSA approved locks, I'm not worried about that. But dammit, WTF don't the kiosks allow international travelers to check in!?!?!? WTF thought this was a good idea???? WTF!?!?!?
(This is why I fly JetBlue to California! I hate the major airlines with a passion. Of course, I didn't sit on the tarmac in NYC for 8 hours either.)
Now I'm waiting in a line that LITERALLY did not move for 45 minutes. I'm standing in the self-service line on the off chance that I can get someone's attention long enough to plead my case to check my bag. I'm doing anything I can think of short of throwing shit. (They still shoot Black people in DC, and enjoy it.) I finally get some modicum of a response from this one agent, obviously overworked and harried, around 10:15 AM. (Reminder the flight time. Scroll back if you need a refresher.) After about 10 - 15 minutes of silence, she says she's going on her break. HELLO? WTF about me? You did say you would see what you could do to help me? How does taking a break help me? Can you at least hand me off to someone else? Fugg me! Another agent, this time a guy, starts working with me but when the exercise ends in defeat, he gives me the obligatory phone number to call to make the impossible changes to my itinerary.
At this point, the memories kind of fade into a blur. I'm sure you're all happy, because this is a long ass post and I need to wrap it up soon. Hell, I'm getting tired of typing. Once I finally get back into the line, it speeds up, taking only 30+ minutes to an agent instead of 45+. So I start telling my story, keeping in mind that I have listened in on or overheard every DC -> Miami cancellation story American has to offer. (Why the hell did they fly the 10:45 but not the 12:20? Huh?) So I'm asking for a flight - any flight, on any airline - to Miami. Nothing. While standing in line, I call the phone number the previous agent gave me and start trying to find something. No go. I call Platinum Travel and they scrounge something together through the Bahamas leaving at 2 something PM. (Should have written that flight number down, because the Bahamian woman in front of me in line was starting the Milton routine. Boy was she unhappy.) For various reasons, I found none of the options too appealing so I wrote them all off except one, which I put on hold. American gives me a voucher made from the remains of my ticket. (Do NOT loose not a single hair off the heads of all 4 tickets, otherwise the whole deal is null and void. Great! That's the same reason I didn't get through Intro to Programming back in 2005.) The woman behind me, heading to a second honeymoon in the Keys with her husband, starts breaking down - badly. Its just ugly.
After getting out of the line, walking through the terminal, I call Platinum Travel and put on hold a flight through the Bahamas on Thursday. (That would be today for everyone who hasn't kept up). Schweet! Now I just need a co-signer in the form of my partner who is opening his house to me. Call him up, and although he sounds upset about it, he signs on. Nice. Progress is being made. I call Platinum Travel back and confirm. We're on! So I make my way back to my parent's house in PG County, so I can be *that* much closer to the airport. After a nap and more crisis pain, I call AmEx back with the intention of locking in the new itinerary. At this point, the agent reads it back, and its missing a leg. Huh? What happened to my flight to Nassau. Oh, it was canceled. Fugg me! Ok, lets put a new one together. After however long, she comes up with a flight through Nassau on Friday. All the same details as the previous itinerary, except the ONLY seat on the plane is first class. Now, I love first class, so its not like she's got to sell me on that bit. Just get me onto the bloody island and I'm happy. But what's the cost? $2064, including the return flight on Delta which carried over from the failed itinerary.
He're's where the trouble starts. See, I don't mind paying the money. That 2K gets me to Trinidad in time for some nice fetes. I've done it before, I'll do it again. If I have a choice of burning time or money, money will win almost every time. But how much is it really worth? I start calling my partner from Monday back, and once I finally get him on the phone, it gets clearer. The 2K buys me 2 nights of parties, but since I'm not in a band for Monday and Tuesday, I end up being a spectator. Fair enough. There's always Jouvert, right? But if I go with the available flight on Sunday, I miss all the hot parties and only have access to the jump up, which I'm only going to watch anyway. But I save 2K. Hmmm. Ain't this a bitch? After some consultation, and another sad story of a failed connection to Miami by another Trini solider who was unfortunate enough to buy ALL his tickets in advance, I decide against the Friday flight.
So here I am. Its 3:13 AM on Thursday, 15 February. I'm at my parents house in Maryland, not San Fernando. Its cold in this bitch. There's black ice outside. The power went out for an hour earlier. Every so often, you hear the ice-laden branches being whipped up (down) by the winds gusting to 40 miles per hour. I wouldn't have to turn the heat up to 80 degrees F if I were in Trinidad right now.
*sigh*
But on the upside, I received e-mail from one of my favorite bloggers tonight. How cool! Already replied. He asked about "the business". We'll see how things go.
And now I think I'm ready for bed. It's been real.
Until next time...stay warm...think Trinidad..."Jumbie" for Road March!
Carbon Credit Markets
Looks like this market is starting to take off in the US, just as it did in Europe. It will be interesting to watch the developments.
I love this kind of stuff!
I love this kind of stuff!
Monday, February 12, 2007
Update on the Biz
I'll take a moment to update anyone who might be interested on how things are coming.
There isn't a whole lot to report. Just the usual - fighting with vendors, waiting for mail, that kind of thing.
The vendor this time is Verisign. Good lord, it shouldn't be this fuggin' difficult! WTF is the problem with VeriSign!?!?!?! For the love of God, I have tried for 2 weeks to get them a document and every time they receive it, they have a problem with it. Anyone who holds an aversion to cursing should skip the next paragraph.
You know, if you're a startup, you might not be listed in the bloody phone book. We're a fucking startup! Its called stealth, you dumbasses! Just get the damn form, approve it, and give me my friggin' certificate. I don't see what's so difficult here. I'm willing to give you my money and you don't want to exchange it for something of value to me??? WTF?
I feel much better now.
On the other hand, my partner has been making some nice progress. Hopefully, by this Friday, we'll have even more supported platforms for our software. Now its time to find an attorney. I hope to have one locked up by now, but both of the people I wanted to work with have disappeared off the face of the planet. Sounds like a conspiracy to me. I mean, I'm willing to pay - and if I can't pay, compensate on some level, a mix of equity and cash - and still can't get people I know and trust. Very disheartening. Looks like I'll have to turn in the one direction I had least expected to turn, and had most avoided - family.
*sigh*
I swear there's probably something else to say, but my brain is slowly decaying in my skull. More tax forms to complete, a letter to FedEx to VeriSign (since faxes seem so difficult for them to handle, and don't get me started on e-mail), and other random shite.
Until next time....avoid VeriSign if you can...
There isn't a whole lot to report. Just the usual - fighting with vendors, waiting for mail, that kind of thing.
The vendor this time is Verisign. Good lord, it shouldn't be this fuggin' difficult! WTF is the problem with VeriSign!?!?!?! For the love of God, I have tried for 2 weeks to get them a document and every time they receive it, they have a problem with it. Anyone who holds an aversion to cursing should skip the next paragraph.
You know, if you're a startup, you might not be listed in the bloody phone book. We're a fucking startup! Its called stealth, you dumbasses! Just get the damn form, approve it, and give me my friggin' certificate. I don't see what's so difficult here. I'm willing to give you my money and you don't want to exchange it for something of value to me??? WTF?
I feel much better now.
On the other hand, my partner has been making some nice progress. Hopefully, by this Friday, we'll have even more supported platforms for our software. Now its time to find an attorney. I hope to have one locked up by now, but both of the people I wanted to work with have disappeared off the face of the planet. Sounds like a conspiracy to me. I mean, I'm willing to pay - and if I can't pay, compensate on some level, a mix of equity and cash - and still can't get people I know and trust. Very disheartening. Looks like I'll have to turn in the one direction I had least expected to turn, and had most avoided - family.
*sigh*
I swear there's probably something else to say, but my brain is slowly decaying in my skull. More tax forms to complete, a letter to FedEx to VeriSign (since faxes seem so difficult for them to handle, and don't get me started on e-mail), and other random shite.
Until next time....avoid VeriSign if you can...
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
Review of T. Harv Eker's "SpeedWealth"
I said I'd get it up here, and finally, here it is - my review of T. Harv Eker's "SpeedWealth - How To Make a Million in Your Own Business in 3 Years or Less".
First, its a simple book. Nothing at all complex about it. Less than 100 pages. While the advice is not unreasonable, I'm sure some will consider it too simple, just based on page count, to be worth any money. However, I tend to believe that good things need not be complex, and just because something is conceptually simple doesn't mean it is easy to execute in the real world. (Consistent trading strategies and discipline, anyone?)
The book talks about the 8 SpeedWealth principles. In order, these principles are [1] develop a SpeedWealth mindset, [2] deliver massive value, [3] timing - choosing the right business at the right time, [4] systemize, [5] duplicate, [6] leverage, [7] cashing out and [8] do it now! Like I said, simple. Having gone through various failed ventures over the last 10 years or so, I'd definitely agree that all of these are important. Admittedly, number 4 is my favorite just because it is the one I've had the most problems with in the past. I also think these principles hold value at the individual level, and I am all about automating things like investments and financial management (as much as reasonable, anyway).
Now, as for whether I would recommend this book. The answer is yes. Its not a long or difficult read. I read it the first time in about 90 minutes, and I read slowly. I know someone out there is complaining right now about something - either because Harv is the author, or they read it and didn't like it, or some other reason. I don't have anything to tell them. I don't think good knowledge or wisdom MUST be complex. Generally, I find complexity is used as a coverup by people who are extremely insecure. I can only speak for myself, and I am seriously considering buying as many copies of the book as make sense so I can give them away to people I know. Simple things which, if applied, can have huge impact in one's life. I like that.
Anyway, I think I rambled again. Fugg it, I'm done. I liked it. If you stumble across a copy, take a read. Hopefully, if you're working on building a business, the book will help you to find ways to address problems and build that business more quickly, effectively and to a larger scale. Or maybe you'll find applicability of the principles in your personal life.
Until next time...
First, its a simple book. Nothing at all complex about it. Less than 100 pages. While the advice is not unreasonable, I'm sure some will consider it too simple, just based on page count, to be worth any money. However, I tend to believe that good things need not be complex, and just because something is conceptually simple doesn't mean it is easy to execute in the real world. (Consistent trading strategies and discipline, anyone?)
The book talks about the 8 SpeedWealth principles. In order, these principles are [1] develop a SpeedWealth mindset, [2] deliver massive value, [3] timing - choosing the right business at the right time, [4] systemize, [5] duplicate, [6] leverage, [7] cashing out and [8] do it now! Like I said, simple. Having gone through various failed ventures over the last 10 years or so, I'd definitely agree that all of these are important. Admittedly, number 4 is my favorite just because it is the one I've had the most problems with in the past. I also think these principles hold value at the individual level, and I am all about automating things like investments and financial management (as much as reasonable, anyway).
Now, as for whether I would recommend this book. The answer is yes. Its not a long or difficult read. I read it the first time in about 90 minutes, and I read slowly. I know someone out there is complaining right now about something - either because Harv is the author, or they read it and didn't like it, or some other reason. I don't have anything to tell them. I don't think good knowledge or wisdom MUST be complex. Generally, I find complexity is used as a coverup by people who are extremely insecure. I can only speak for myself, and I am seriously considering buying as many copies of the book as make sense so I can give them away to people I know. Simple things which, if applied, can have huge impact in one's life. I like that.
Anyway, I think I rambled again. Fugg it, I'm done. I liked it. If you stumble across a copy, take a read. Hopefully, if you're working on building a business, the book will help you to find ways to address problems and build that business more quickly, effectively and to a larger scale. Or maybe you'll find applicability of the principles in your personal life.
Until next time...
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
The challenge of a financial product with religious dimension
I've heard a bit about sukuk in the past but I haven't kept up with it. Interesting concept. Sounds like preferred stock to me. Maybe I'm oversimplifying a bit, but structured like a bond except for the interest payment (which is disallowed under Islam). Instead, the company pays out profits.
Riiiiiiight. A preferred.
Better position in the capital structure, some guaranteed yield, but a preferred it is. No matter, as long as it works.
However, what struck me the MOST was this quote from the trader profiled in the article, Chris Steer:
I love it! Financial engineering actually uniting people, for once? Could it be, really??? Who'd have thunk!?!?
Riiiiiiight. A preferred.
Better position in the capital structure, some guaranteed yield, but a preferred it is. No matter, as long as it works.
However, what struck me the MOST was this quote from the trader profiled in the article, Chris Steer:
"It's quite simple really. What people don't know, they either don't like or mistrust. The more you find out about something, the more you understand it. It makes you more sympathetic to other religions and cultures."
I love it! Financial engineering actually uniting people, for once? Could it be, really??? Who'd have thunk!?!?
Lies I Tell You!
I have to take some serious issue with this article at the NY Post. The Ritz-Carlton Laguna Niguel is not terribly swanky! Its very unfortunate, too. Just because it shares the name, do not be confused. It was a disappointment compared to the other Ritzes I've stayed in. (I'm building a collection.) I do, however, like the beach front location. Even in March, a walk on the beach was a bit too cool for me, and I live in DC!
Oh well.
*sigh*
Oh well.
*sigh*
Water Redux
This cover story at CFO.com makes a nice complement to my earlier post about investing in water. While that post postulates about water futures as an investment vehicle (if they existed), this CFO article looks at it from public company perspectice. I'm not sure the model is exactly what I would choose, but the general investment thesis is solid. Definitely a space to keep watching.
Blog Recommendation - The Housing Bubble Blog
This one is almost as much a comedy entry as a serious business entry. You gotta love some of the comments re-posted on this blog. Classic! Such as this:
Hilarious!
And this:
I love this blog. A nice quick daily overview of the overall, ground level state of the real estate market, from all over the world (but obviously with a US bent).
Until next time...which shouldn't be too long from now...
"'If you are paying the negative amortization amount, you are looking at a small light at the end of a tunnel,' Smith said. 'It's connected to a locomotive that is going to smack you in the face.'"
Hilarious!
And this:
"'Didn't you read the newspapers? Property values are going down!'"
I love this blog. A nice quick daily overview of the overall, ground level state of the real estate market, from all over the world (but obviously with a US bent).
Until next time...which shouldn't be too long from now...
The Risks of Betting Big on ETFs
I'll have more to say about the risks of this strategy in a future post, inspired by some of Veryan Allen's musings on diversification and All About Alpha's thoughts on portable alpha.
Monday, February 05, 2007
Trading in Disaster
Fascinating stuff!
If only I was a player...
*sniffle*
Sounds like yields haven't compressed too much in one corner of the investment world. I wonder what the chance is that my PIMCO funds invest in cat bonds and similar? Hmmm. Probably very low. How disappointing. I'll have to go take a closer look at the portfolios in the near future.
If only I was a player...
*sniffle*
Sounds like yields haven't compressed too much in one corner of the investment world. I wonder what the chance is that my PIMCO funds invest in cat bonds and similar? Hmmm. Probably very low. How disappointing. I'll have to go take a closer look at the portfolios in the near future.
Saturday, February 03, 2007
Corporate Progress
Things are coming together slowly. I expect to receive the physical copies of the incorporation documents sometime this weekend, as well as getting some verification information notarized. By next week, I expect that this software will be running in its full glory without the restrictions that have plagued us so far. I'm sooo excited! I can't wait to see it actually work!
Shortly, I plan to have that long ago discussed review of T. Harv Eker's "Speedwealth". I'll start by briefly saying that it is a very quick read. I think it took me 60 - 90 minutes while I was waiting for a contractor to arrive at one of my real estate prospect sites. I read it so fast that I immediately knew I would need to re-read it to lock in the concepts. While they are fundamentally simple, they make a lot of sense and appear to be very powerful. I hope to implement many of them in building my software company. Anyway, please bear with me. Its coming after finish my re-read.
More to come...
Shortly, I plan to have that long ago discussed review of T. Harv Eker's "Speedwealth". I'll start by briefly saying that it is a very quick read. I think it took me 60 - 90 minutes while I was waiting for a contractor to arrive at one of my real estate prospect sites. I read it so fast that I immediately knew I would need to re-read it to lock in the concepts. While they are fundamentally simple, they make a lot of sense and appear to be very powerful. I hope to implement many of them in building my software company. Anyway, please bear with me. Its coming after finish my re-read.
More to come...
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