Let me begin my setting the scene.
The Thesis: I believe that the best (only?) trade or even long term position right now is commodities. Yes, we're in an ungodly recession, depression, whatever kind of -ession you want to call it. Yes, it will get significantly worse. (Not going to talk my book, but believe that. Hell, residential RE and the attendant issues are not fully resolved.) However, there is a certain level of demand for commodities, especially oil, that will put a floor under their prices. It could be argued that in the high 30s, West Texas Intermediate crude oil is free. Not cheap - free! Even at the worst prices of summer 2008, oil was cheaper than water (another mis-priced natural resource).
The Security: The PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN aka DXO.
Now that you have some background on my thinking and the stock I used to express my views, the next few posts will explain the mistakes that I see. If you happen to notice others, by all means, let me know in the comments. My goal is to both help my own understanding of my mistakes so I don't repeat them, and to share that experience with others, so that they avoid them (or at least correct them sooner).
Until next time...